It's going to be just like every other "recent" triple A MMO title. Very good sales at first, less than half will sub after the free month, after 3-4 months there will be a very steep decline in subs, and after a year or so, the game will have faded into obscurity.
It really depends on what Trion does in those 3-4months and if they keep the updates and additions coming. It could easily keep their subscribers attention longer than you think.
I think in 6months they might reach 1mil subs depending on their actions.
It's going to be just like every other "recent" triple A MMO title. Very good sales at first, less than half will sub after the free month, after 3-4 months there will be a very steep decline in subs, and after a year or so, the game will have faded into obscurity.
Are people really so naive to believe otherwise?
May I ask what you believe to be the requirements for an MMORPG that could break this trend?
It's going to be just like every other "recent" triple A MMO title. Very good sales at first, less than half will sub after the free month, after 3-4 months there will be a very steep decline in subs, and after a year or so, the game will have faded into obscurity.
Are people really so naive to believe otherwise?
May I ask what you believe to be the requirements for an MMORPG that could break this trend?
Not quite sure, as that is the golden question. However, I am quite certain RIFT is not it.
It's going to be just like every other "recent" triple A MMO title. Very good sales at first, less than half will sub after the free month, after 3-4 months there will be a very steep decline in subs, and after a year or so, the game will have faded into obscurity.
Are people really so naive to believe otherwise?
May I ask what you believe to be the requirements for an MMORPG that could break this trend?
Not quite sure, as that is the golden question. However, I am quite certain RIFT is not it.
Doubting its success based on no grounds for comparison is hardly being realistic. LethalBurst, Optimism! try it sometime.
It's going to be just like every other "recent" triple A MMO title. Very good sales at first, less than half will sub after the free month, after 3-4 months there will be a very steep decline in subs, and after a year or so, the game will have faded into obscurity.
Are people really so naive to believe otherwise?
And by your terms of obscurity you mean....under 12mill, 1 mill, 500k, 100k....
95% of MMORPG's are between 10k to 500k.... It will be in or above this, so by your standards, all these are obscure?
Core i5 13600KF, BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard
It's going to be just like every other "recent" triple A MMO title. Very good sales at first, less than half will sub after the free month, after 3-4 months there will be a very steep decline in subs, and after a year or so, the game will have faded into obscurity.
Are people really so naive to believe otherwise?
May I ask what you believe to be the requirements for an MMORPG that could break this trend?
Not quite sure, as that is the golden question. However, I am quite certain RIFT is not it.
Doubting its success based on no grounds for comparison is hardly being realistic. LethalBurst, Optimism! try it sometime.
It's going to be just like every other "recent" triple A MMO title. Very good sales at first, less than half will sub after the free month, after 3-4 months there will be a very steep decline in subs, and after a year or so, the game will have faded into obscurity.
Are people really so naive to believe otherwise?
May I ask what you believe to be the requirements for an MMORPG that could break this trend?
Not quite sure, as that is the golden question. However, I am quite certain RIFT is not it.
Doubting its success based on no grounds for comparison is hardly being realistic. LethalBurst, Optimism! try it sometime.
Ah, but there are plenty of grounds for comparison, such as the aformentioned MMO releases over the past 5 years or so. I don't really care if Rift does well or not, as I won't be playing it. I'm just making a guess.
Not quite sure, as that is the golden question. However, I am quite certain RIFT is not it.
Feeling 'quite certain' doesn't make it more true.
Me, I favor the 'wait and see' attitude. With MMO's like TERA, GW2, Rift, SWTOR and WoD coming out the potential is there in abundance to break this trend of decline in obscurity. After all, it has just been a trend of the last few years, not a trend in MMO's from the beginning, as it wasn't there with UO, EQ, DAoC, FFXI, AC.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
The question isn't really: "Will Rift outsell World of Warcraft?" because the answer there is going to be 'No.'
The real question is: Will Rift make money?
And I think it's safe to guess the answer to that is: Yes. It was developed by a small studio, presumably cost less money to make than WoW (which was an insanely expensive game) and might only need 50k-200k subscribers to keep everyone at Trion employed.
Do you treat music the same way you treat videogames? If an album doesn't go platinum, it must suck, right?
We all want our favorite games to be successful, but you can't measure every game against WoW, which is an anomaly anyway for MMO's.
Rift is well-made and I think it is targeting the right kind of player... People who enjoyed the core mechanics of World of Warcraft, or Everquest 2, or LOTRO, but who are burnt out and ready for something new. I think Rift has done that perfectly, if I'm any sort of evidence - I love LOTRO still, but after two maxed-out characters I'm pretty bored with it. After I played Beta 6 of Rift I preordered.
They claim they spent $50 million developing this game. If they sell 200,000 copies at $50, that is $10 mil. They will have to do far better than that to break even much less make money. Their advertising has been clever and strategic but I really don't think they will see 1 mil sold at release.
Currently Playing: Perpetuum MMOs Played (most time spent to least): World of Warcraft (BG/Open world PvP focused), Lord of the Rings Online (PvMP focused), Warhammer Online (BG PvP focused), Global Agenda, Age of Conan, DC Universe Online (PvP focused), Runes of Magic, Allods, Aion, Fallen Earth
I would say Rift will do the AoC style, sell massive amount of boxes then 3 months down the road the servers are half emty 6 months later server merges and another 6 months it's on life support.
Doubt that very much. This game is polished and it's very fun. Almost like WoW but with better graphics and better background story. It actually feels like you are in a constant siege from the elemental planes.
Really? I don't know why so many of you guys want this game to fail so badly.
Rift is going to be an absolutely massive game.
I don't understand it either. I have never sat there and thought I hoped a game would fail. It really makes no sense at all.
It's kind of like trying to understand why people come on these forums more then a few times to bash the game. Not that death threats are okay by any means, but then they wonder why they get them.
"I am not playing unless they sell 11 million boxes in the first month, and have over 10 million active users in the first 4 weeks... I am just into too many popular things to be burdened by unpopular things.. Trust me, if it's pop-culture I am a huge fan! I even like the Green Bay Packers now.. I watch American Idol and Glee.. My room is decorated in Justin Beiber and Lady Gaga posters.. I even still wear my "Pedro for President" T-shirt..
since they made it pretty easy to get into the beta events, and had a worthy open beta event at the end for even more access to the game, and the fact that it was packed and people were mostly actually playing the game and not standing around in zones, i'd say that most of the people buying the game were convinced they would be playing it for a while.
i'll add i feel Rift will be a massive hit, and possibly contender for mmo of the year.
why? flamers haters hold your hats....cause no matter the similarities or basic mmo flavor it has, it is well done, fun, and plays Phenomenally well. Best playing beta i've ever been in since 1998, and that's a lot of them including wow.
Comments
It's going to be just like every other "recent" triple A MMO title. Very good sales at first, less than half will sub after the free month, after 3-4 months there will be a very steep decline in subs, and after a year or so, the game will have faded into obscurity.
Are people really so naive to believe otherwise?
It really depends on what Trion does in those 3-4months and if they keep the updates and additions coming. It could easily keep their subscribers attention longer than you think.
I think in 6months they might reach 1mil subs depending on their actions.
Are people really so defeatist that they are the ones who make it so....
Core i5 13600KF, BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard
Unless the actual release game is a different one than the beta I was playing, this is highly doubtful.
Defeatist? No.
Realist? Yes.
May I ask what you believe to be the requirements for an MMORPG that could break this trend?
Not quite sure, as that is the golden question. However, I am quite certain RIFT is not it.
Doubting its success based on no grounds for comparison is hardly being realistic. LethalBurst, Optimism! try it sometime.
And by your terms of obscurity you mean....under 12mill, 1 mill, 500k, 100k....
95% of MMORPG's are between 10k to 500k.... It will be in or above this, so by your standards, all these are obscure?
Core i5 13600KF, BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard
Can we say optimism together? I'm scared!
I think we'll find out over time.
Ah, but there are plenty of grounds for comparison, such as the aformentioned MMO releases over the past 5 years or so. I don't really care if Rift does well or not, as I won't be playing it. I'm just making a guess.
woops
What I was trying to get at was that those other "AAA quality" MMOs aren't a good source for comparsion beside Rift.
anyway.. I think we have gone offtopic enough
Feeling 'quite certain' doesn't make it more true.
Me, I favor the 'wait and see' attitude. With MMO's like TERA, GW2, Rift, SWTOR and WoD coming out the potential is there in abundance to break this trend of decline in obscurity. After all, it has just been a trend of the last few years, not a trend in MMO's from the beginning, as it wasn't there with UO, EQ, DAoC, FFXI, AC.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
http://www.amazon.com/Games-PC/b/ref=vg_nav_win_allgames?ie=UTF8&node=12508701&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=browse&pf_rd_r=0YPR84BBF8YF8971GEP9&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1286560562&pf_rd_i=229575#/ref=sr_pg_2?rh=n%3A468642%2Cn%3A!11846801%2Cn%3A229575%2Cn%3A12508701&page=2&ie=UTF8&qid=1298069818
It's number 13 on Amazon for PC games right now, it's a week before release so it should be accurate.
Someone needs to find out how much EQ's expansion and that Magicka game is selling and we know how well Rift is selling.
They claim they spent $50 million developing this game. If they sell 200,000 copies at $50, that is $10 mil. They will have to do far better than that to break even much less make money. Their advertising has been clever and strategic but I really don't think they will see 1 mil sold at release.
Currently Playing: Perpetuum
MMOs Played (most time spent to least): World of Warcraft (BG/Open world PvP focused), Lord of the Rings Online (PvMP focused), Warhammer Online (BG PvP focused), Global Agenda, Age of Conan, DC Universe Online (PvP focused), Runes of Magic, Allods, Aion, Fallen Earth
Id say they will sell around 700k, then when the first monthly fees kick in they will break even. Not gonna be a big deal
Doubt that very much. This game is polished and it's very fun. Almost like WoW but with better graphics and better background story. It actually feels like you are in a constant siege from the elemental planes.
It's kind of like trying to understand why people come on these forums more then a few times to bash the game. Not that death threats are okay by any means, but then they wonder why they get them.
"I am not playing unless they sell 11 million boxes in the first month, and have over 10 million active users in the first 4 weeks... I am just into too many popular things to be burdened by unpopular things.. Trust me, if it's pop-culture I am a huge fan! I even like the Green Bay Packers now.. I watch American Idol and Glee.. My room is decorated in Justin Beiber and Lady Gaga posters.. I even still wear my "Pedro for President" T-shirt..
POP FTW!"
Wait.. What? Oh, is this thing on?
Well it seems Rift is best selling Amazon game right now, both for digital and boxed. And both Versions (collectors) are in the top 5 also
Looking good.
Core i5 13600KF, BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard
4th best selling on steam.. ouch burn haters.
1st BEST SELLING GAME on Amazon at the moment
http://www.amazon.com/Game-Downloads/b/ref=sa_menu_gdown3/178-9613476-2241222?ie=UTF8&node=979455011
I bet Rift will sell a lot! not only at launch...but months later....
I suck at math but isnt 80% of 500k the same as 40% of 1 million?
I know what you are saying, but the guys at Trion would probably rather have the box sales of 1 million and keep the same 400k subs=)
on topic: If I had to guess I would say they may reach 1 million box sales worldwide and hopefully retain 60% or so for at least 3 months or more.
But thats just a guess, and a biased one at that because I will be playing Rift myself.
since they made it pretty easy to get into the beta events, and had a worthy open beta event at the end for even more access to the game, and the fact that it was packed and people were mostly actually playing the game and not standing around in zones, i'd say that most of the people buying the game were convinced they would be playing it for a while.
i'll add i feel Rift will be a massive hit, and possibly contender for mmo of the year.
why? flamers haters hold your hats....cause no matter the similarities or basic mmo flavor it has, it is well done, fun, and plays Phenomenally well. Best playing beta i've ever been in since 1998, and that's a lot of them including wow.