What is exactly the relevance of knowing box sales and subscription for games?
I suppose if your a stock holder in a company or the gaming company has some financial responsibiltiy to you it might be pertinent somehow.
Could someone please enilighten me I why this affects most people playing these games?
I think that's a very good question and I will try to answer it from my point of view.
I don't think the mmorpg community is what you READ in the forums. I think there is a HUGE population of players that actually like to play their existent games and don't want unplayable sandboxes, constant "redone" things and are not even bored.
I don't think that the hyping of "this week's new star - at all costs - " is a good thing either.
take the case with Rift: it is being hyped through the roof.
talked into the millions.
Only the millions aren't ... there. The game will launch with a clearly proven maxed capacity of .. 200K ...
And it proves one thing.
Forum talk simply is not the market talk.
That's why checking the reality in exact numbers and figures is very meaningful for the future of this industry.
Far more than you would think.
Now that in this thread it is proven the game will have a pre launch of 200K fans, it is coming down to the proper proportions.
No millions, nope. Those were only present into the minds of the forum posters.
Very important for the next bunch of developpers. Do we need another WOW killer clone ?
I think that's a very good question and I will try to answer it from my point of view.
I don't think the mmorpg community is what you READ in the forums. I think there is a HUGE population of players that actually like to play their existent games and don't want unplayable sandboxes, constant "redone" things and are not even bored.
I don't think that the hyping of "this week's new star - at all costs - " is a good thing either.
take the case with Rift: it is being hyped through the roof.
talked into the millions.
Only the millions aren't ... there. The game will launch with a maxed capacity of .. 200K ...
And it proves one thing.
Forum talk simply is not the market talk.
That's why checking the reality in exact numbers and figures is very meaningful for the future of this industry.
Far more than you would think.
Now that was an explanation of your viewpoint I found reasonable and understandable. I don't agree with the used arguments and debate methods to support that viewpoint - but opinions can differ and all that - but kudos for the clear explanation of it.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
What is exactly the relevance of knowing box sales and subscription for games?
I suppose if your a stock holder in a company or the gaming company has some financial responsibiltiy to you it might be pertinent somehow.
Could someone please enilighten me I why this affects most people playing these games?
I think that's a very good question and I will try to answer it from my point of view.
I don't think the mmorpg community is what you READ in the forums. I think there is a HUGE population of players that actually like to play their existent games and don't want unplayable sandboxes, constant "redone" things and are not even bored.
I don't think that the hyping of "this week's new star - at all costs - " is a good thing either.
take the case with Rift: it is being hyped through the roof.
talked into the millions.
Only the millions aren't ... there. The game will launch with a maxed capacity of .. 200K ...
And it proves one thing.
Forum talk simply is not the market talk.
That's why checking the reality in exact numbers and figures is very meaningful for the future of this industry.
Far more than you would think.
I would like to ask one thing and be honest, Pragues - if we'll get some official numbers and they happen to be times bigger than you are trying to convince everyone, will you come back here and admit that you were wrong? Basically it's the question about difference between bashing and debating
I understand you are shocked by the "1500 players per server" statements above.
If I would have given this number I would have been called a lying troll. Actually some accused me even more.
The fact is : we see now an advantage. We KNOW without discussion what the target number of players is on this game's servers and we know the # of servers.
Instead of trying to insult one another, lets see things true ... now that we have a measuring reference, let's do the conclusions.
And my thesis is: the forums is ONE world, the actual MMO world is a complete other beast. And it is not because some are yelling in threads, that these guys are ... right.
In WAR those official numbers were right on track: 113 servers and 800K players on its top position. Although the fans would say complete other things at that time.
Analyse server numbers and you'll analyse the pops in the game.
I read the 1500 per server quote. I think it was beurocratic. I think they are intentionally putting a low number out there so when the actual numbers come in they can say things like "It surpassed our expectations". I know they have 29 headstart servers and 20 more for a total of 49 for launch. I think we can all agree that Trion has actually learned from other game launches over the past 5 yrs.
My opinion....They are going to get hammered come launch. But, I think they will be ready for it and are planning for this and will bring up servers (even more than they stated) to meet the influx of players. In turn making them look like the best gaming company in recent history.
Its all by design....
14 hrs and 40 mins...until headstart....can't wait.
I read the 1500 per server quote. I think it was beurocratic. I think they are intentionally putting a low number out there so when the actual numbers come in they can say things like "It surpassed our expectations". I know they have 29 headstart servers and 20 more for a total of 49 for launch. I think we can all agree that Trion has actually learned from other game launches over the past 5 yrs.
My opinion....They are going to get hammered come launch. But, I think they will be ready for it and are planning for this and will bring up servers (even more than they stated) to meet the influx of players. In turn making them look like the best gaming company in recent history.
Its all by design....
14 hrs and 40 mins...until headstart....can't wait.
Of course they will add servers after the initial pre start. It is a well know feature in all launches. Even War did it, Aion did it.
The interesting point for me is ... how many servers will they add and when will it top.
For me personally it is interesting to watch because it will show how big those so called "bored" people numbers really are.
At least now we'll have an idea how to measure things without resorting to name calling and third party interpretations.
From then on we can make conclusions and could talk why things went this way (up) or that way (down) and what correlation there is with other variables like upcoming games, Cata's launch, so called boredom, success of copied features or silly forum warriors.
I read the 1500 per server quote. I think it was beurocratic. I think they are intentionally putting a low number out there so when the actual numbers come in they can say things like "It surpassed our expectations". I know they have 29 headstart servers and 20 more for a total of 49 for launch. I think we can all agree that Trion has actually learned from other game launches over the past 5 yrs.
My opinion....They are going to get hammered come launch. But, I think they will be ready for it and are planning for this and will bring up servers (even more than they stated) to meet the influx of players. In turn making them look like the best gaming company in recent history.
Its all by design....
14 hrs and 40 mins...until headstart....can't wait.
Of course they will add servers after the initial pre start. It is a well know feature in all launches. Even War did it, Aion did it.
The interesting point for me is ... how many servers will they add and when will it top.
For me personally it is interesting to watch because it will show how big those so called "bored" people numbers really are.
At least now we'll have an idea how to measure things without resorting to name calling and third party interpretations.
From then on we can make conclusions and could talk why things went this way (up) or that way (down) and what correlation there is with other variables like upcoming games, Cata's launch, so called boredom, success of copied features or silly forum warriors.
im confused, wow had more then 10k people playing on a server. i remember running wowcensus and getting more then that. if trion is talking 1500 per server, im betting its per server not cluster, meaning the server will hold more then the 1500 you are arguing with. just cause byriel is a server doesnt mean its 1 server, its a cluster and for sure can handle more then 1500 people. i swear there were more then 1500 in freemarch in open beta, and the freaking ques were annoying.
I read the 1500 per server quote. I think it was beurocratic. I think they are intentionally putting a low number out there so when the actual numbers come in they can say things like "It surpassed our expectations". I know they have 29 headstart servers and 20 more for a total of 49 for launch. I think we can all agree that Trion has actually learned from other game launches over the past 5 yrs.
My opinion....They are going to get hammered come launch. But, I think they will be ready for it and are planning for this and will bring up servers (even more than they stated) to meet the influx of players. In turn making them look like the best gaming company in recent history.
Its all by design....
14 hrs and 40 mins...until headstart....can't wait.
Of course they will add servers after the initial pre start. It is a well know feature in all launches. Even War did it, Aion did it.
The interesting point for me is ... how many servers will they add and when will it top.
For me personally it is interesting to watch because it will show how big those so called "bored" people numbers really are.
At least now we'll have an idea how to measure things without resorting to name calling and third party interpretations.
From then on we can make conclusions and could talk why things went this way (up) or that way (down) and what correlation there is with other variables like upcoming games, Cata's launch, so called boredom, success of copied features or silly forum warriors.
I agree with you but, by your very wording you have given your opinion of the game so how is that objective? You already believe that if Rift has 'crazy numbers' it is because:
1. Players are bored 2. There is nothing better
Or maybe 3. The game is solid and gives players options and different avenues of gameplay and character advancement for years to come.
I just don't get why you are wasting so much energy on a game you don't like. The game you want to be designed will never exist because the 'sever pop' of that game would be about 25...worldwide....
Who cares what the exact numbers are? The game has a good marketting campaign around it. Good buzz from players and critics. The betas went over well. Preorders are high and the game is set to launch tomorrow. Sounds like the best mmo launch in years. People can flame the game and its fans all they want to but Rift is showing that it plans to be here for a long while and they have built it to be so. So many negative nancys around comparing every game with every other. Rift is what it is. You either like it or not. If so? have fun and I will see you in game. If not? good luck finding your game.
There is not 'so many negative nancy's' They are by far the minority of mmo gamers...they just happen to be the most jaded, whining, active (because they don't have a game to play) and loudest of the mmo community, so it seems like there are a lot of them....especially on this website. See you in game man...can't wait.
Honestly am a bit curious , so example 1500 is false , ok fine but first day it definetly feel like 1500 a server throtlled back
The server cap has been increased , that I do notice based on 3 day game play , the lag or latency is starting to feel on max graphics , so had to lower the graphics .
So lets say 3-5k a server so 49 servers means around 147000 (preorders)-245k preorders .. well my gut feeling says around 200k preorders already .
Don´t know about 10k servers and more those are rare even wow doesn´t have more then 5-10 of those .
And those 20k+ servers only a handfull excists .
Well anyway basically based on profit margins of Trion my estimate , they only need to retain around 250k-300k subscribers .
But only time can tell , since not everybody is sold by a CE edition or headstart .
I guess the 1-4 march will give official numbers from retailers about how many are sold .
But the negativity and idiocy on the forums means timing is crucial and wow is getting stagnate and old .
Also a assumption I made last year , march might be a good time , since nothing new in wow and game is frankly getting boring .
So lets see what the sales are in march is beter estimate , roughly 50% of that will move towards SWTOR in may .
So can they keep a stable group of loyal subscribers is more the question , or can they keep the wow burnouts .
Since they already saw everything in wow , after 6 years there isn´t much to do its not like city of heroes who keep bringing out new stuff .
Ermm, some people are being really harsh on this thread saying that it will fail. I'm pretty sure it won't. It's a good game, addictive, fun and full of stuff to do.
Nothing majorly unique, but hey, it's still good stuff! There have been over 1million Trion account created, but that doesn't necessarily suggest 1 million preorders.
Stop being negative pessimists and actually WAIT and SEE what RIFT brings. You can't make outrageous claims like "oh ya it will fayl in 6 munths!" without knowing what updates/patches/new features they might have in store. Or how many people do end up buying it.
WAR supposedly sold around 800k copies early on, which was enough to nearly fill up the 126 servers it launched with (I know, after a while the number of people playing dropped and there's almost no servers left now, but this was how it began). I don't know how many servers RIFT has running, but you could use those numbers to extrapolate how many subs there are.
WAR supposedly sold around 800k copies early on, which was enough to nearly fill up the 126 servers it launched with (I know, after a while the number of people playing dropped and there's almost no servers left now, but this was how it began). I don't know how many servers RIFT has running, but you could use those numbers to extrapolate how many subs there are.
I think it all depends, we'll have to wait until official sales numbers are being mentioned. However, if I counted correctly there are already 68 Rift servers listed with the newly added ones in the headstart period alone.
To compare with other MMO's, WAR used 126 servers to facilitate 800k players, and AoC used 49 servers to facilitate 700k players.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Might I add that I could level a toon to 60 in a few days of grinding when WoW came out as well and there was no endgame other than Emperor runs. MC was a ways off at the time. So to make that comparison, you can't say that Rift will just fizzle. You can point to other things, but just because people are dinging 50, does not mean that everyone is and even so, I think the endgame contnent will be implemented quicker than MC was back then.
im confused, wow had more then 10k people playing on a server. i remember running wowcensus and getting more then that. if trion is talking 1500 per server,
Rift has about 1/3 of the content that WoW had at release. Each side has one zone to level through up to the 20s and then they share one zone for each level range up to 50. It is one of the smallest MMOs to be released. The entire basis of the game requires a small population per server since having too many players ruins the rift events. I'm not surprised at all that they have really small server caps. That isn't always a bad thing, in fact it would be a really good thing if not for the fact they planned on adding cross server dungeons which will destroy any chance at a meaningful community.
The 1500 number is an early beta number, not what the serves can currently hold. From Rift's own forums:
Can each shard only hold 1500 players?
I keep seeing references to a dev saying that each sever would only hold 1500 people. The actual quote was from a very old IRC chat where one of our devs was talking about numbers for that current beta as the servers were opened. We do not release specific numbers about our servers. But we saw higher numbers with each beta and the same thing applies to release. The 1500 rumor is false.
A certain individual with a pro-WoW and anti-anything else agenta is just spamming this number in all Rift related threads. You can safely ignore these blatant attempts at deliberate misinformation.
im confused, wow had more then 10k people playing on a server. i remember running wowcensus and getting more then that. if trion is talking 1500 per server,
Rift has about 1/3 of the content that WoW had at release. Each side has one zone to level through up to the 20s and then they share one zone for each level range up to 50. It is one of the smallest MMOs to be released. The entire basis of the game requires a small population per server since having too many players ruins the rift events. I'm not surprised at all that they have really small server caps. That isn't always a bad thing, in fact it would be a really good thing if not for the fact they planned on adding cross server dungeons which will destroy any chance at a meaningful community.
Originally posted by Seffren Originally posted by Ender4
im confused, wow had more then 10k people playing on a server. i remember running wowcensus and getting more then that. if trion is talking 1500 per server,
Rift has about 1/3 of the content that WoW had at release. Each side has one zone to level through up to the 20s and then they share one zone for each level range up to 50. It is one of the smallest MMOs to be released. The entire basis of the game requires a small population per server since having too many players ruins the rift events. I'm not surprised at all that they have really small server caps. That isn't always a bad thing, in fact it would be a really good thing if not for the fact they planned on adding cross server dungeons which will destroy any chance at a meaningful community. So it has been decided then? Care to provide a source.
I just noticed he originally said it would be cross shard and then changed the comment but it seems to be that was only after all the complaining. Maybe they will change their minds but I fully expect it to be cross shard.
im confused, wow had more then 10k people playing on a server. i remember running wowcensus and getting more then that. if trion is talking 1500 per server,
Rift has about 1/3 of the content that WoW had at release. Each side has one zone to level through up to the 20s and then they share one zone for each level range up to 50. It is one of the smallest MMOs to be released. The entire basis of the game requires a small population per server since having too many players ruins the rift events. I'm not surprised at all that they have really small server caps. That isn't always a bad thing, in fact it would be a really good thing if not for the fact they planned on adding cross server dungeons which will destroy any chance at a meaningful community.
I just noticed he originally said it would be cross shard and then changed the comment but it seems to be that was only after all the complaining. Maybe they will change their minds but I fully expect it to be cross shard.
I'm not sure how reliable any estimate can be considering the data just isn't there. Gary Gannon from Gamebreaker.tv estimates around 700k copies have been sold based on some complicated math forumula that he used to figure out other games' numbers (and was right on, by the way).
Comments
I think that's a very good question and I will try to answer it from my point of view.
I don't think the mmorpg community is what you READ in the forums. I think there is a HUGE population of players that actually like to play their existent games and don't want unplayable sandboxes, constant "redone" things and are not even bored.
I don't think that the hyping of "this week's new star - at all costs - " is a good thing either.
take the case with Rift: it is being hyped through the roof.
talked into the millions.
Only the millions aren't ... there. The game will launch with a clearly proven maxed capacity of .. 200K ...
And it proves one thing.
Forum talk simply is not the market talk.
That's why checking the reality in exact numbers and figures is very meaningful for the future of this industry.
Far more than you would think.
Now that in this thread it is proven the game will have a pre launch of 200K fans, it is coming down to the proper proportions.
No millions, nope. Those were only present into the minds of the forum posters.
Very important for the next bunch of developpers. Do we need another WOW killer clone ?
Now that was an explanation of your viewpoint I found reasonable and understandable. I don't agree with the used arguments and debate methods to support that viewpoint - but opinions can differ and all that - but kudos for the clear explanation of it.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I understand you are shocked by the "1500 players per server" statements above.
If I would have given this number I would have been called a lying troll. Actually some accused me even more.
The fact is : we see now an advantage. We KNOW without discussion what the target number of players is on this game's servers and we know the # of servers.
Instead of trying to insult one another, lets see things true ... now that we have a measuring reference, let's do the conclusions.
And my thesis is: the forums is ONE world, the actual MMO world is a complete other beast. And it is not because some are yelling in threads, that these guys are ... right.
In WAR those official numbers were right on track: 113 servers and 800K players on its top position. Although the fans would say complete other things at that time.
Analyse server numbers and you'll analyse the pops in the game.
I read the 1500 per server quote. I think it was beurocratic. I think they are intentionally putting a low number out there so when the actual numbers come in they can say things like "It surpassed our expectations". I know they have 29 headstart servers and 20 more for a total of 49 for launch. I think we can all agree that Trion has actually learned from other game launches over the past 5 yrs.
My opinion....They are going to get hammered come launch. But, I think they will be ready for it and are planning for this and will bring up servers (even more than they stated) to meet the influx of players. In turn making them look like the best gaming company in recent history.
Its all by design....
14 hrs and 40 mins...until headstart....can't wait.
Of course they will add servers after the initial pre start. It is a well know feature in all launches. Even War did it, Aion did it.
The interesting point for me is ... how many servers will they add and when will it top.
For me personally it is interesting to watch because it will show how big those so called "bored" people numbers really are.
At least now we'll have an idea how to measure things without resorting to name calling and third party interpretations.
From then on we can make conclusions and could talk why things went this way (up) or that way (down) and what correlation there is with other variables like upcoming games, Cata's launch, so called boredom, success of copied features or silly forum warriors.
거북이는 목을 내밀 때 안 움직입니다
im confused, wow had more then 10k people playing on a server. i remember running wowcensus and getting more then that. if trion is talking 1500 per server, im betting its per server not cluster, meaning the server will hold more then the 1500 you are arguing with. just cause byriel is a server doesnt mean its 1 server, its a cluster and for sure can handle more then 1500 people. i swear there were more then 1500 in freemarch in open beta, and the freaking ques were annoying.
I agree with you but, by your very wording you have given your opinion of the game so how is that objective? You already believe that if Rift has 'crazy numbers' it is because:
1. Players are bored 2. There is nothing better
Or maybe 3. The game is solid and gives players options and different avenues of gameplay and character advancement for years to come.
I just don't get why you are wasting so much energy on a game you don't like. The game you want to be designed will never exist because the 'sever pop' of that game would be about 25...worldwide....
There is not 'so many negative nancy's' They are by far the minority of mmo gamers...they just happen to be the most jaded, whining, active (because they don't have a game to play) and loudest of the mmo community, so it seems like there are a lot of them....especially on this website. See you in game man...can't wait.
Regard the "server can only hold 1500 players at once,max", I'll just leave this here
Honestly am a bit curious , so example 1500 is false , ok fine but first day it definetly feel like 1500 a server throtlled back
The server cap has been increased , that I do notice based on 3 day game play , the lag or latency is starting to feel on max graphics , so had to lower the graphics .
So lets say 3-5k a server so 49 servers means around 147000 (preorders)-245k preorders .. well my gut feeling says around 200k preorders already .
Don´t know about 10k servers and more those are rare even wow doesn´t have more then 5-10 of those .
And those 20k+ servers only a handfull excists .
Well anyway basically based on profit margins of Trion my estimate , they only need to retain around 250k-300k subscribers .
But only time can tell , since not everybody is sold by a CE edition or headstart .
I guess the 1-4 march will give official numbers from retailers about how many are sold .
But the negativity and idiocy on the forums means timing is crucial and wow is getting stagnate and old .
Also a assumption I made last year , march might be a good time , since nothing new in wow and game is frankly getting boring .
So lets see what the sales are in march is beter estimate , roughly 50% of that will move towards SWTOR in may .
So can they keep a stable group of loyal subscribers is more the question , or can they keep the wow burnouts .
Since they already saw everything in wow , after 6 years there isn´t much to do its not like city of heroes who keep bringing out new stuff .
Ermm, some people are being really harsh on this thread saying that it will fail. I'm pretty sure it won't. It's a good game, addictive, fun and full of stuff to do.
Nothing majorly unique, but hey, it's still good stuff! There have been over 1million Trion account created, but that doesn't necessarily suggest 1 million preorders.
Stop being negative pessimists and actually WAIT and SEE what RIFT brings. You can't make outrageous claims like "oh ya it will fayl in 6 munths!" without knowing what updates/patches/new features they might have in store. Or how many people do end up buying it.
Gah!
-StapledPuppet
WAR supposedly sold around 800k copies early on, which was enough to nearly fill up the 126 servers it launched with (I know, after a while the number of people playing dropped and there's almost no servers left now, but this was how it began). I don't know how many servers RIFT has running, but you could use those numbers to extrapolate how many subs there are.
I think it all depends, we'll have to wait until official sales numbers are being mentioned. However, if I counted correctly there are already 68 Rift servers listed with the newly added ones in the headstart period alone.
To compare with other MMO's, WAR used 126 servers to facilitate 800k players, and AoC used 49 servers to facilitate 700k players.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Might I add that I could level a toon to 60 in a few days of grinding when WoW came out as well and there was no endgame other than Emperor runs. MC was a ways off at the time. So to make that comparison, you can't say that Rift will just fizzle. You can point to other things, but just because people are dinging 50, does not mean that everyone is and even so, I think the endgame contnent will be implemented quicker than MC was back then.
Rift has about 1/3 of the content that WoW had at release. Each side has one zone to level through up to the 20s and then they share one zone for each level range up to 50. It is one of the smallest MMOs to be released. The entire basis of the game requires a small population per server since having too many players ruins the rift events. I'm not surprised at all that they have really small server caps. That isn't always a bad thing, in fact it would be a really good thing if not for the fact they planned on adding cross server dungeons which will destroy any chance at a meaningful community.
The 1500 number is an early beta number, not what the serves can currently hold. From Rift's own forums:
Can each shard only hold 1500 players?
I keep seeing references to a dev saying that each sever would only hold 1500 people. The actual quote was from a very old IRC chat where one of our devs was talking about numbers for that current beta as the servers were opened. We do not release specific numbers about our servers. But we saw higher numbers with each beta and the same thing applies to release. The 1500 rumor is false.
http://forums.riftgame.com/showthread.php?83293-A-Few-Server-Questions-Answered
A certain individual with a pro-WoW and anti-anything else agenta is just spamming this number in all Rift related threads. You can safely ignore these blatant attempts at deliberate misinformation.
So it has been decided then?
Care to provide a source.
They said that they'll add an LFD, they have yet to decide if it will be cross-servers or not thought.
Rift has about 1/3 of the content that WoW had at release. Each side has one zone to level through up to the 20s and then they share one zone for each level range up to 50. It is one of the smallest MMOs to be released. The entire basis of the game requires a small population per server since having too many players ruins the rift events. I'm not surprised at all that they have really small server caps. That isn't always a bad thing, in fact it would be a really good thing if not for the fact they planned on adding cross server dungeons which will destroy any chance at a meaningful community.
So it has been decided then?
Care to provide a source.
http://www.riftwatchers.com/2011/02/15/a-dungeon-finder-is-coming-to-rift/
I just noticed he originally said it would be cross shard and then changed the comment but it seems to be that was only after all the complaining. Maybe they will change their minds but I fully expect it to be cross shard.
Because a blog says it does?
So it hasn't been decided yet.
Thanks for not spreading false rumors.
I'm not sure how reliable any estimate can be considering the data just isn't there. Gary Gannon from Gamebreaker.tv estimates around 700k copies have been sold based on some complicated math forumula that he used to figure out other games' numbers (and was right on, by the way).
No, because a Dev said it and then waffled when the community complained about it and changed it from Will to May.