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Whats the verdic?
Riechman
Member Posts: 19
Now I know that this question has been asked at least once on this forum. I'm not going to go searching for it, because its probaly buried under 100s of threads. So, I am going to ask it again.
WoW vs. WAR?
I know WAR is still in beta and scheduled for release on Sept. 18th, but from what some of you beta testers have played and experienced, how does it compare to WoW?
Will it dent WoW's population? If so, by how much?
Is it possibly a WoW killer? ( I know that was a stupid question. )
Comments
First off I doubt it will dent wow population cause wow is still growing.
Second, if you read up on the forums you would know that pvp players from wow don't like the "slow" combat in this game. So I doubt those people will come here.
My gueses this game will get about 2 million max people (hopefully more)
And no it is not a wow killer. Cause wow is to casual based pve and warhammer is more of a casual/hardcore based pvp game.
First off, you have to keep in mind one simple fact.
The only game that will beat WoW, is Blizzard's next MMORPG.
That said, WAR will most likely win in terms of Sub numbers compared to the rest of the mmorpgs since WoW, but as for WoW itself, not even close.
War might be able to net a Million or 2 in 2-3 years, but very few mmorpgs have been able to get up to that point.
BIOWARE might become the next blizzard if they do well with their KOTOR mmorpg, since they share Blizzards work ethic, but that is still years away.
2 Million?
Everquest 2 and Lord of the rings online only have about 200k.
Half a million would already be extremely positive.
http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart7.html
My bet is 100k in six months because there is only PVP and PVE and nothing else to do.
2 Million?
Everquest 2 and Lord of the rings online only have about 200k.
Half a million would already be extremely positive.
http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart7.html
My bet is 100k in six months because there is only PVP and PVE and nothing else to do.
LOL 100k are you retarded?
AoC, whose main selling point was boobs and gore sold 700k boxes
i think WAR can easily match that
It really depends on what kind of game your looking for...are you looking for a game where you pve with some side game pvp with super fast unrealistic combat and a ton of raiding / exclusive content then you probably won't like WAR.
If your looking for a game where you want to choose how you progress in levels, Guilds actually have meaning besides a standard group finder (guild levels), cities change depending on how hard you've worked or if the enemy attacked (city levels & content ftw) the pvp means something and affects the world, there is no exclusive content for just one type of player mind set (no raid progression) then you'll probably like WAR.
Personally I hate WoW because of its design not because its a noob game etc etc so when I got my hands on WAR at first I wasn't sure what to think then I was like..damn I'm so getting this game.
Will it be a WoW killer? I dont know...honestly I doubt it..Blizz would have to royally piss off the entire world in order to loose enough subs and die.
Will it dent the population? Maybe a little but I doubt it'll dent it to make it even worthy of cheering / booing over.
2 Million?
Everquest 2 and Lord of the rings online only have about 200k.
Half a million would already be extremely positive.
http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart7.html
My bet is 100k in six months because there is only PVP and PVE and nothing else to do.
LOL 100k are you retarded?
AoC, whose main selling point was boobs and gore sold 700k boxes
i think WAR can easily match that
Maybe, but if you read my post carefully, you'll notice I said 100k IN 6 MONTHS.
Besides I think the hype and marketing for AOC was bigger then it is for WAR.
Well you have to take a look at the table-top fanbase + all the ex-wow players & the hardcore lore fans.
If it releases well i think it should be at about a steady 500k in 6 months
(Yes i was in CB)
My veredict is, for what I have read, not having played beta at all, so I might be very wrong and probably pople will say yes you are, but I like to make predictions based on intuition:
WAR is DaOC, plus WOW, plus TF2 (yes, TF2) brilliantly and intelligently put together, to give us a rather new experience that will be very fun and worth trying.
I don't expect it to be a traditional MMORPG, I even consider it a hybrid between a MMORPG and a multiplayer game, but don't want to miss it.
A WOW killer? I don't think so. As many people have said already, WOW is something elkse, it's a phenomenon, it's like Mark Spitz in 1972, it will be decades until another one appears.
If WAR is as fun as it seems, population could be one milion counting NA and Europe. God knows in Asia.
Funny thing is people were saying this about EQ and EQ2.
They also said it about Ford and then General Motors
They also said it about Doom and then Half-Life
I will say one thing though, MMORPG's have to be very careful with barriers to entry. WoW was able to cream EQ because you could get to max level in WoW in 15 days and in EQ it took about 60, at the time. With each expansion and level cap raise, you are raising your barriers to entry for players who want to join the game. WoW with it's 2nd expansion is going to be catering to it's existing customers, but making it more difficult for new customers. That's the same thing that EQ did, which helped topple it from the throne, and probably restricted it's popularity. It was extremely daunting for a new player to come into EQ and see that he was 64 levels, 500 AA points and 9 planar flags behind the 'end game content' players. Now WoW is going to put their new players 79 levels behind.
It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. WoW tried to address it by increasing the experience gain for players levels 1-60 (I think), but they didn't balance other parts of the game with that increased experience rate - like crafting and aquiring gear. EQ has done the same thing, now, with their Hot Zones.
I wouldnt say that WoW is a casual pve game.. there is so much grinding in that game it remindes me of playing EQ sometimes.. huge timesinks for everything .. Raiding ... you might have to give up your job and girlfriend to do that, i know i wasnt able to so i never really raided.. Even the pvp in Wow is a grind and not even fun.. lets all do race AV over and over and over and over and over..
2 Million?
Everquest 2 and Lord of the rings online only have about 200k.
Half a million would already be extremely positive.
http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart7.html
My bet is 100k in six months because there is only PVP and PVE and nothing else to do.
LOL 100k are you retarded?
AoC, whose main selling point was boobs and gore sold 700k boxes
i think WAR can easily match that
Maybe, but if you read my post carefully, you'll notice I said 100k IN 6 MONTHS.
Besides I think the hype and marketing for AOC was bigger then it is for WAR.
WAR will do better than 100k subs in 6 months. If it doesn't look for EA to shut it down as it would no longer even be worth keeping open to them. Again, this is NOT going to happen.
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You wouldn't understand
By that reasoning Lord of the Rings online should have 1 million subscribers.
Lord of the rings has millions of fans, it had 3 movies, books, whatever and is still very much alive.
I dare to say Lord of the rings has a lot more fans then Warhammer.
And it is supposedly a good game; not a whole lot of negative feedback on this forum about that game.
It still only has about 200k subscribers according to mmogchart.com.
I honestly think this game will do very well sales-wise. It is the only casual pvp focused MMORPG on the market. Therefore, people who don't want to deal with losing their crap or mining rocks all day can still go kill some people level up there guys and enjoy the game. The PvE counterparts have a lot more competition. I personally enjoyed WoW for a long time, Vanguard looks like its coming around, and I've heard good things about LOTR pve. A LOT of people like to be able to quest without being ganked and then go attack a keep and participate in a massive battle when they feel like it. As to numbers... how the hell would I know. I can tell you that I would be shocked If it doesn't take the #2 spot numbers wise.
How whould the beta testers know by how much can WAR dent WoWs population?!
Did you think at all before writing such crap?
Seriously some people are beyond any limits... I feel sad for you sir.
I'm lead to beleive that Mythic will release a Chinese language client and have local servers so I anticipate over 1 million subscribers easily.
I think 300/400K subs past 3 months . Initial sales will lead up to 700/800K, no doubt.
XFire.com will be very interesting to watch the trends. AOC had 65K+ in its first week and is now down to 9K (compared to 400K+ playings for Wow). So in our western world Wow is being played now 40 times more than Conan (2 months ago AoC was the Wow killer remember ...).
So a trend will be visible how WAR will be accepted.
I think this is also the upper limit in view of the fact WAR had 800 K Beta applies up till now and Conan had a 1 million.
But here is a table top WH fan who plays Wow and he has big questions about the lore. TT Lore consists of army blocks battling other armies. The identity of WAR Armies was lost in the transition to the MMO.
I can only play a warrior priest for the moment as it is the only valid "core" class of Empire from the TT. Most TT players feel the same and hardly a handfull are even interested in the local clubs.
The subs could have been higher IF the tactical PvP feeling was more in line with Wow (crowd control is very poor in War) and the fighting would have been faster.
All those saying "millions of players" forget WAR is only about PvP, with a side event. Even the crafting is brought in as an afterthought.
As of now the game's tactical PvP is certainly not good enough to hold much interest of present day Wow PvP players. So they will attract mostly bored Wow players, and ex Conan players. MMORPG.COM is full of them... but this site is hardly representative for the players that actually play....
As for the RvR: WAR keeps ALL have the same lay-out and the keeps aren't "destructable". You conquer them by opening the "door" after which you battle in the keeps.
Siege weapons are fixed in the same locations, so a lot of repititive play.
In the end the game that will be played ...will have subscriptions.
It could be the number two, but I doubt it will be over 500K in the longer run (past 6 months). Pure one themed MMORPG's don't have too much long term interest. (LOTRO: pure PVE, DAoC was pure PvP). All down to sub 150K or far less these days.
PvP is not a good Pay to Play event. Very few MMORPG players want to have their heads chopped off all of the time and even pay to let it happen.
One ugly word came up again: faction balance (people hate losing).
I think 300/400K subs past 3 months . Initial sales will lead up to 700/800K, no doubt.
XFire.com will be very interesting to watch the trends. AOC had 65K+ in its first week and is now down to 9K (compared to 400K+ playings for Wow). So in our western world Wow is being played now 40 times more than Conan (2 months ago AoC was the Wow killer remember ...).
So a trend will be visible how WAR will be accepted.
I think this is also the upper limit in view of the fact WAR had 800 K Beta applies up till now and Conan had a 1 million.
But here is a table top WH fan who plays Wow and he has big questions about the lore. TT Lore consists of army blocks battling other armies. The identity of WAR Armies was lost in the transition to the MMO.
I can only play a warrior priest for the moment as it is the only valid "core" class of Empire from the TT. Most TT players feel the same and hardly a handfull are even interested in the local clubs.
The subs could have been higher IF the tactical PvP feeling was more in line with Wow (crowd control is very poor in War) and the fighting would have been faster.
All those saying "millions of players" forget WAR is only about PvP, with a side event. Even the crafting is brought in as an afterthought.
As of now the game's tactical PvP is certainly not good enough to hold much interest of present day Wow PvP players. So they will attract mostly bored Wow players, and ex Conan players. MMORPG.COM is full of them... but this site is hardly representative for the players that actually play....
As for the RvR: WAR keeps ALL have the same lay-out and the keeps aren't "destructable". You conquer them by opening the "door" after which you battle in the keeps.
Siege weapons are fixed in the same locations, so a lot of repititive play.
In the end the game that will be played ...will have subscriptions.
It could be the number two, but I doubt it will be over 500K in the longer run (past 6 months). Pure one themed MMORPG's don't have too much long term interest. (LOTRO: pure PVE, DAoC was pure PvP). All down to sub 150K or far less these days.
PvP is not a good Pay to Play event. Very few MMORPG players want to have their heads chopped off all of the time.
Hmm i agree with many of these points and feel that it all really boils down to how engaging end-game content is,
and how fast Mythic can roll out new content.
(by new content i mean dungeons/classes/races)
Funny thing is people were saying this about EQ and EQ2.
They also said it about Ford and then General Motors
They also said it about Doom and then Half-Life
The thing with EQ and EQ2 is that there are completely different developers involved, different studios, and the same franchise with many changes.
Blizzard in in a league of their own with WoW. Their next mmorpg wont be the same franchise and if their first attempt at mmorpgs nets them over 11 million subs world wide, where as other games and mmorpgs cannot even come close to that... then theres not much to be said.
Its company behind the games thats important, not exactly the product. There are many Blizzard fans, due to the quality of products they release.
I think it'll be another mmorpg that sells well but doesn't keep the subs after the first couple months. None of my friends are interested cause they said it looks too much like wow and im not interested because it plays too much like wow and im bored of these EQ like mmorpgs, just want something new and innovative.
2 Million?
Everquest 2 and Lord of the rings online only have about 200k.
Half a million would already be extremely positive.
http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart7.html
My bet is 100k in six months because there is only PVP and PVE and nothing else to do.
LOL 100k are you retarded?
AoC, whose main selling point was boobs and gore sold 700k boxes
i think WAR can easily match that
Maybe, but if you read my post carefully, you'll notice I said 100k IN 6 MONTHS.
Besides I think the hype and marketing for AOC was bigger then it is for WAR.
WAR will do better than 100k subs in 6 months. If it doesn't look for EA to shut it down as it would no longer even be worth keeping open to them. Again, this is NOT going to happen.
It will definately be over 100k. AoC had 500k active subs right after launch. Of course they lost all those because the game was just as bad as the company behind it, but with amount of preorders made, the media attention, the popular european franchise and company behind WAR. If they can keep the active subs made at launch (which should be equal to or higher than AoC's) then they will easily be able to get close to the 1 mill mark in a year, and easily have over 400k within 6 months.
Mythic just needs to focus on all those replay value features in that time and add a lot of content and features that allow the pvp to rage on for a long time without it losing its "fun factor"
Well, you'll be waiting quite a while then. I'm sure the genre has to advance at some point of course, but with the style that it is right now I think Mythic is doing something great.
I think 300/400K subs past 3 months . Initial sales will lead up to 700/800K, no doubt.
XFire.com will be very interesting to watch the trends. AOC had 65K+ in its first week and is now down to 9K (compared to 400K+ playings for Wow). So in our western world Wow is being played now 40 times more than Conan (2 months ago AoC was the Wow killer remember ...).
So a trend will be visible how WAR will be accepted.
I think this is also the upper limit in view of the fact WAR had 800 K Beta applies up till now and Conan had a 1 million.
But here is a table top WH fan who plays Wow and he has big questions about the lore. TT Lore consists of army blocks battling other armies. The identity of WAR Armies was lost in the transition to the MMO.
I can only play a warrior priest for the moment as it is the only valid "core" class of Empire from the TT. Most TT players feel the same and hardly a handfull are even interested in the local clubs.
The subs could have been higher IF the tactical PvP feeling was more in line with Wow (crowd control is very poor in War) and the fighting would have been faster.
All those saying "millions of players" forget WAR is only about PvP, with a side event. Even the crafting is brought in as an afterthought.
As of now the game's tactical PvP is certainly not good enough to hold much interest of present day Wow PvP players. So they will attract mostly bored Wow players, and ex Conan players. MMORPG.COM is full of them... but this site is hardly representative for the players that actually play....
As for the RvR: WAR keeps ALL have the same lay-out and the keeps aren't "destructable". You conquer them by opening the "door" after which you battle in the keeps.
Siege weapons are fixed in the same locations, so a lot of repititive play.
In the end the game that will be played ...will have subscriptions.
It could be the number two, but I doubt it will be over 500K in the longer run (past 6 months). Pure one themed MMORPG's don't have too much long term interest. (LOTRO: pure PVE, DAoC was pure PvP). All down to sub 150K or far less these days.
PvP is not a good Pay to Play event. Very few MMORPG players want to have their heads chopped off all of the time.
Hmm i agree with many of these points and feel that it all really boils down to how engaging end-game content is,
and how fast Mythic can roll out new content.
(by new content i mean dungeons/classes/races)
Now this is the kind of information you don't read on this forum.
I knew there were siege weapons in the game, and thought that was extremely cool.
I just assumed they were portable and you had to bring them yourself or whatever.
This is disappointing.
Nice post by the way and I agree with your estimate in 3 months. I also stand by my 100k subs after 6 months.
I reckon at launch the game will likely match or exceed the sales figures AoC made.
Sorry to state the obvious though, wotlk will take a huge chunk out of anyone that remains subbed to WAR as soon as it goes live in november.
I reckon it will remain solid at 2-300k in Q1 next year, possibly growing as people steadily get bored with wow's expansion.
If mythic come up with the good's on patching in new content early on and throughout next year I'm sure we'll see a steady growth.
Optimistically I'd say 1 year from launch it'll hold 800k to 1million subs worldwide.
2 Million?
Everquest 2 and Lord of the rings online only have about 200k.
Half a million would already be extremely positive.
http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart7.html
My bet is 100k in six months because there is only PVP and PVE and nothing else to do.
I lol'd
currently playing: FFXI
Waiting for FFXIV to be updated more.
My guess is a peak over $1M subs with a sustained population of something over 500K for the first 6 months. This is by far the best title to come out since WoW and LOTRO had 300K people 6 months in btw.
WoW's western world population is only something like $4M right now so if they can break $1M it will put a real dent in WoW even though it won't be a 'WoW killer'. It obviously wont' touch the eastern subscription base at all.