4 times sounds a bit too much, 3 times is more likely but I guess the only sure thing is somewhere between 500K and 1,5M in the first 2 weeks.
Not bad for a MMO but I honestly expected 2 million or so, the IP is famous and the game have gotten plenty of attention.
As OP said is it the console sales that truly matter though, the last 2 TES games have been way more popular there and I really hope that Zenimax get the game just right for consoles.
This is by no means a disaster but it ain't that great either. It might make things harder for devs to get financing for their MMOs if a MMO based on a popular IP with a good budget wont do so great, TOR already made many investors careful. While the game have it's drawbacks it is by no means a bad game, makes one wonder if P2P games really are dying.
As an old MMO player I hope that ain't the case, I like P2P.
4 times sounds a bit too much, 3 times is more likely but I guess the only sure thing is somewhere between 500K and 1,5M in the first 2 weeks.
Not bad for a MMO but I honestly expected 2 million or so, the IP is famous and the game have gotten plenty of attention.
As OP said is it the console sales that truly matter though, the last 2 TES games have been way more popular there and I really hope that Zenimax get the game just right for consoles.
Based on recent EA and Activision results retail is still larger than digital - EA even missed their profit f/c last Christmas because they underestimated retail sales and over estimated digital sales. Hence NPD's claim - in the small print - that retail is "by far the largest" channel. And there is no compelling reason to think that TESO was any different - retail could be bought for less than digital and didn't come with the huge download - an issue to some. Assuming a 50/50 split would probably be on the high side.
The NPD numbers (for the US) are an estimate but TESO would struggle even if it had sold well to appear in the top ten: its an all format chart. The top selling PS4 only game for April, according to Sony, isn't in the list either - could be duff NPD data or morelikely down to the fact that it is single format. And the vgchartz numbers are a guesstimate.
Bottomline: no numbers. claims of huge sales cannot be substantiated. claims of low sales cannot be substantiated.
As far as consoles sales go though ..... TESO isn't launching on the 360 or PS3; the installed user base is millions not hundreds of millions. And if it launches at the end of the year - that is a busy period. Getting prominent shelf space, even ad space etc. is all so much harder - and more expensive.
The game will flop on console for one simple fact. Console players do not like to pay for playing online when they already pay for PSN+ or XBOX Gold to play online. MMORPGs are historically extremely hard to sell on consoles and no Skyrim is going to change that especially not after the bad reviews and problems the game has.
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Your speculations are amusing but they are no more than wishful thinking of a die hard fan that does not want his game to die.
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The only thing that could save the game is when they pull a FFXIV:ARR type re-launch for consoles out of their hat.
Originally posted by nilden Meh could be lower, could be higher. Still would like to see official numbers.
I think sales will steadily increase over the summer and then a huge spike in sales will occur from September - December. I still predict 10 million active by Jan. '15
Originally posted by nilden Meh could be lower, could be higher. Still would like to see official numbers.
I think sales will steadily increase over the summer and then a huge spike in sales will occur from September - December. I still predict 10 million active by Jan. '15
ROFL. Ya up against WoD, and others, not likely. I ll eat my copy of WoD, and AA if this happens.
If sales topped 1 million the company would have made it public and used it as a way to hype the game by keeping it in the news. Instead, silence allowing word to spread about what a bot fest it is with people blackmailing players and how there are bugs that stop all progression and now with how horrible the end game is.
Right, a company is NOT going to do what they can to put a positive spotlight on their game..........
Originally posted by nilden Meh could be lower, could be higher. Still would like to see official numbers.
I think sales will steadily increase over the summer and then a huge spike in sales will occur from September - December. I still predict 10 million active by Jan. '15
I thought 10 million sales was ridiculous... you think 10 million ACTIVE ?
Originally posted by nilden Meh could be lower, could be higher. Still would like to see official numbers.
I think sales will steadily increase over the summer and then a huge spike in sales will occur from September - December. I still predict 10 million active by Jan. '15
With ESO in its current state and you want to predict that? I think Laos will invade and conquer Denmark before that happens.
If you are asking yourself, "whu....?" then yeah, exactly.
As much as i didn't like the direction zeni took with ESO, i wish it had sold better. The industry is just going to look at ESO and SWTOR as reasons to not make mmos with triple digit budgets. i wish we could get a veteran mmo development team with that kind of budget.... instead of these attempts by novice where the only thing going for them is the IP.
Or they could look at why they failed and not release MMOs too damn early
Originally posted by nilden Meh could be lower, could be higher. Still would like to see official numbers.
I think sales will steadily increase over the summer and then a huge spike in sales will occur from September - December. I still predict 10 million active by Jan. '15
ROFL. Ya up against WoD, and others, not likely. I ll eat my copy of WoD, and AA if this happens.
Considering that WoD has been canceled and AA isnt as great as once thought.. Not much left other than Landmark and possibly a pay in alpha for EQ Next. Wildstar may do well but with their devs flailing at trying to draw hype its a bit on the backburner.
I dont think there has been more than million sales for ESO since they havent said anything and one would assume they would if that were the case. But I do think that they have gotten enough to feel comfortable with delaying the console launch for 6 months.
As long as the initial sales numbers weren't a complete disaster, retention rate is more relevant anyway. The PC version is currently in its make-or-break phase and ZeniMax will have to speed up progress substantially if they want to get out of it unscathed.
Taking too long to fix even basic issues and giving players stuff to keep them busy until the actual endgame content is ready is exactly what did SWTOR in and so far ZOS aren't doing any better.
These days loyalty to a character you build and game you play is next to non existent. Once upon a time people would play a game and would stay with it longer because of friends or the fact that they love their character or want to support the game irregardless of its faults. I did that with Anarchy Online ,City of Villians, Everquest 2 and Vanguard and am still doing it with SWTOR (2 subs) for almost all the time the game has been live.
So forget about sales you cannot expect players to stay they will drop you like a hot potato if you disappoint them and ESO has been doing the disappoint thing quite well if you go by the boards here. It is fatal for a game with a subscription simply because the subscription is the point and if it was f2p or b2p not so much. One could depart and come back but subs you need them to pay every month for the game to go on. So whether it sold that much or not is simply a bragging point. The subs are make or break.
This mmo has flopped harder then SWTOR and this guy thinks its selling MILLIONS of boxes ? And keeping a higher retention ? Do you even played this mmo ? have you seen what an abomination this mmo is ? I joined 3 diffrent guilds with around 100 give or take members in it. 3 of those guilds have around 5 to 15 people online atm at prime time ! from 100+ to 5/15 ! in 3 weeks time !!!!
Where is Zenimax announcement of their new succes mmo breaking records or selling like hot potatoes ? You think they would keep it quit if it sold well ? realy ? realy realy ? you kidding us ?
ESO is selling shit and have even shittier retention then SWTOR / Warhammer lol. And man i hope they are going to flop even harder !!!
You know why ? they lied.....they made a shit mmo and asked top dollars for it. Game should not even be released man. No amount of fixes is going to safe this mmo as its just one big mess of mistakes upon mistakes.
But lets wait and see ! bookmarking this one for future reference when the ship has sunk.
Meh, I am having a blast, if it sold 2 copies or 2 million, I am having a hell of a lot more fun than I ever did in GW2. As long as I get my money's worth these days, I don't worry too much.
People--including myself in the past--really love to hate some games. They look for ways to really hold on to the negative, almost to the point where hating the game *is* their game. Welcome to MMORPG.com I guess.
Originally posted by Purutzil Please allow ESO to use its own propaganda and number manipulated. You don't need to do it yourself. Attempting to use ANOTHER game as a basis of making a ratio on sales is just as valuable as if I were to make a baseless claim "It sold 1 million copies". Ratios won't hold up. Creating numbers to make a game look better (which btw, 1.2 million isn't very good for a big budget MMO) is NOT going to prove any point. I believe its considered a slipper slope falacy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slippery_slope) though someone correct me if I'm wrong.
This. The OP's calculation is complete conjecture, at best, and made up nonsense at worst.
Breaking down this 300,000 physical sales count, more than half or 170,000 was sold in North America, a third or 100,000 was sold in Europe with the remaining sold in other countries.
Then we need to add the digital sales, which could be as much as triple the physical sales.
Applying this ratio to Elder Scrolls Online, the game could have sold 1.2 million copies for both digital and physical sales for the PC/Mac platform in the first two weeks. Digital sales will include the digital Standard Edition and digital Imperial Edition which are sold on the official website, Steam and other online distributors. That’s a great number that makes it a contender for the most popular MMORPG release this year.
And remember only the Elder Scrolls Online for PC/Mac has been release. The game will likely see another huge spike in sales in the summer months when the console versions for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One come out on June 30. With the end of school and summer vacation and players who may have held back on purchasing the game or have been waiting for the console versions will be grabbing a copy.
Topping Western charts
Elder Scrolls Online has sold well in the Western regions like United States and Europe.
VGChartz said Elder Scrolls Online was top-selling game in the United States at retail stores during its launch week, with sales more than double the number 2 contender, Titanfall. The MMORPG was also the top-selling game in Europe at retail stores in the same week, clinching number 1 in the biggest gaming markets of United Kingdom, Germany and France.
Looking deeper into the United Kingdom sales, the Elder Scrolls Online debuted at the number 1 spot of the individual formats chart tracked by UKIE, the country’s official agency for interactive games. It’s an impressive feat for a PC/Mac title, beating stiff competition from console releases like Titanfall and inFamous: Second Son.
Elder Scrolls Online also came in second in the all formats chart, just behind juggernaut soccer sports title FIFA 14, but ahead of popular shooters Call of Duty: Ghosts and Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes.
Let's dissect this horrible post, part by part.
First, only 300k was sold and you use a factor used by a completely other game and apply to this one? This method is useless and will give your garbage data so the 1.2 million units sold is complete garbage.
Second, the topping of western charts, fails to tell you that it went from #1 to #10 in just ONE week and the following week it was at #24. That is terrible by any games standard.
Titanfall, on the other hand, which is used above to compare with is still at #2.
Also based on Bethesda/Zenimax complete silence about the sales numbers, the game is most likely selling quite poorly. If it would have sold 1 million units, for sure they would have announced it.
Im guessing OP didnt read the recent information that 75% of gamers buy physical copies of games where they can get digital copies instead. So that 300k figure being 75% of the actual sales makes the game in the 400k ballpark...not 1.2million.
yes totaly forgot about that article ! But even if that article would not be posted it still is nowhere near that 3 million mark. I think it barely exceeded 1 million and had already seen a dropoff right after that mark. Words of failure spread fast around the net these days and so many people were noticed how bad this mmo realy is.
Thanks to Angry Joe and Force who have around 1.5 millions hits on ESO revieuw people knew what to expect instead of those revieuws that give a 9 !!! for this mmo. You cant take these payed revieuws from major site's serious anymore......
I suspect the posters claiming magnificent sales of a game with obviously flawed game mechanisms and poorly thought out design concepts; clearly demonstrated to be inadequately tested; live in Colorado, USA [where it is legal to buy and smoke pot]... or they live in California where, irrespective of legality, they buy and smoke pot anyway (especially the politicians).
I sincerely hope ZOS gets its act together; the game needs a lot of work (and a new management team).
Im guessing OP didnt read the recent information that 75% of gamers buy physical copies of games where they can get digital copies instead. So that 300k figure being 75% of the actual sales makes the game in the 400k ballpark...not 1.2million.
Im guessing OP didnt read the recent information that 75% of gamers buy physical copies of games where they can get digital copies instead. So that 300k figure being 75% of the actual sales makes the game in the 400k ballpark...not 1.2million.
Comments
NPD Sales results for April
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-05-15-titanfall-ps4-drive-us-game-sales-up-17-percent-in-april-npd
4 times sounds a bit too much, 3 times is more likely but I guess the only sure thing is somewhere between 500K and 1,5M in the first 2 weeks.
Not bad for a MMO but I honestly expected 2 million or so, the IP is famous and the game have gotten plenty of attention.
As OP said is it the console sales that truly matter though, the last 2 TES games have been way more popular there and I really hope that Zenimax get the game just right for consoles.
This is by no means a disaster but it ain't that great either. It might make things harder for devs to get financing for their MMOs if a MMO based on a popular IP with a good budget wont do so great, TOR already made many investors careful. While the game have it's drawbacks it is by no means a bad game, makes one wonder if P2P games really are dying.
As an old MMO player I hope that ain't the case, I like P2P.
Of course, this post is another speculation to add in the human history of speculation.
I do believe ESO have a strong box sales, but again, I'm just speculating.
SOLA - www.solaguild.com
(christian guild. Being christian is not required for membership though)
Based on recent EA and Activision results retail is still larger than digital - EA even missed their profit f/c last Christmas because they underestimated retail sales and over estimated digital sales. Hence NPD's claim - in the small print - that retail is "by far the largest" channel. And there is no compelling reason to think that TESO was any different - retail could be bought for less than digital and didn't come with the huge download - an issue to some. Assuming a 50/50 split would probably be on the high side.
The NPD numbers (for the US) are an estimate but TESO would struggle even if it had sold well to appear in the top ten: its an all format chart. The top selling PS4 only game for April, according to Sony, isn't in the list either - could be duff NPD data or morelikely down to the fact that it is single format. And the vgchartz numbers are a guesstimate.
Bottomline: no numbers. claims of huge sales cannot be substantiated. claims of low sales cannot be substantiated.
As far as consoles sales go though ..... TESO isn't launching on the 360 or PS3; the installed user base is millions not hundreds of millions. And if it launches at the end of the year - that is a busy period. Getting prominent shelf space, even ad space etc. is all so much harder - and more expensive.
The game will flop on console for one simple fact. Console players do not like to pay for playing online when they already pay for PSN+ or XBOX Gold to play online. MMORPGs are historically extremely hard to sell on consoles and no Skyrim is going to change that especially not after the bad reviews and problems the game has.
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Your speculations are amusing but they are no more than wishful thinking of a die hard fan that does not want his game to die.
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The only thing that could save the game is when they pull a FFXIV:ARR type re-launch for consoles out of their hat.
I think sales will steadily increase over the summer and then a huge spike in sales will occur from September - December. I still predict 10 million active by Jan. '15
ROFL. Ya up against WoD, and others, not likely. I ll eat my copy of WoD, and AA if this happens.
If sales topped 1 million the company would have made it public and used it as a way to hype the game by keeping it in the news. Instead, silence allowing word to spread about what a bot fest it is with people blackmailing players and how there are bugs that stop all progression and now with how horrible the end game is.
Right, a company is NOT going to do what they can to put a positive spotlight on their game..........
I thought 10 million sales was ridiculous... you think 10 million ACTIVE ?
Jezus maria de la exageration.
..Cake..
With ESO in its current state and you want to predict that? I think Laos will invade and conquer Denmark before that happens.
If you are asking yourself, "whu....?" then yeah, exactly.
"If I offended you, you needed it" -Corey Taylor
Or they could look at why they failed and not release MMOs too damn early
Considering that WoD has been canceled and AA isnt as great as once thought.. Not much left other than Landmark and possibly a pay in alpha for EQ Next. Wildstar may do well but with their devs flailing at trying to draw hype its a bit on the backburner.
I dont think there has been more than million sales for ESO since they havent said anything and one would assume they would if that were the case. But I do think that they have gotten enough to feel comfortable with delaying the console launch for 6 months.
As long as the initial sales numbers weren't a complete disaster, retention rate is more relevant anyway. The PC version is currently in its make-or-break phase and ZeniMax will have to speed up progress substantially if they want to get out of it unscathed.
Taking too long to fix even basic issues and giving players stuff to keep them busy until the actual endgame content is ready is exactly what did SWTOR in and so far ZOS aren't doing any better.
These days loyalty to a character you build and game you play is next to non existent. Once upon a time people would play a game and would stay with it longer because of friends or the fact that they love their character or want to support the game irregardless of its faults. I did that with Anarchy Online ,City of Villians, Everquest 2 and Vanguard and am still doing it with SWTOR (2 subs) for almost all the time the game has been live.
So forget about sales you cannot expect players to stay they will drop you like a hot potato if you disappoint them and ESO has been doing the disappoint thing quite well if you go by the boards here. It is fatal for a game with a subscription simply because the subscription is the point and if it was f2p or b2p not so much. One could depart and come back but subs you need them to pay every month for the game to go on. So whether it sold that much or not is simply a bragging point. The subs are make or break.
This mmo has flopped harder then SWTOR and this guy thinks its selling MILLIONS of boxes ?
And keeping a higher retention ?
Do you even played this mmo ? have you seen what an abomination this mmo is ?
I joined 3 diffrent guilds with around 100 give or take members in it.
3 of those guilds have around 5 to 15 people online atm at prime time !
from 100+ to 5/15 ! in 3 weeks time !!!!
Where is Zenimax announcement of their new succes mmo breaking records or selling like hot potatoes ?
? you kidding us ?
You think they would keep it quit if it sold well ? realy ? realy realy
ESO is selling shit and have even shittier retention then SWTOR / Warhammer lol.
And man i hope they are going to flop even harder !!!
You know why ? they lied.....they made a shit mmo and asked top dollars for it.
Game should not even be released man.
No amount of fixes is going to safe this mmo as its just one big mess of mistakes upon mistakes.
But lets wait and see ! bookmarking this one for future reference when the ship has sunk.
Meh, I am having a blast, if it sold 2 copies or 2 million, I am having a hell of a lot more fun than I ever did in GW2. As long as I get my money's worth these days, I don't worry too much.
People--including myself in the past--really love to hate some games. They look for ways to really hold on to the negative, almost to the point where hating the game *is* their game. Welcome to MMORPG.com I guess.
This. The OP's calculation is complete conjecture, at best, and made up nonsense at worst.
My gaming blog
Let's dissect this horrible post, part by part.
First, only 300k was sold and you use a factor used by a completely other game and apply to this one? This method is useless and will give your garbage data so the 1.2 million units sold is complete garbage.
Second, the topping of western charts, fails to tell you that it went from #1 to #10 in just ONE week and the following week it was at #24. That is terrible by any games standard.
As for the UK game chart results; what source did that article use? Using this one: http://www.chart-track.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110015 it is not even listed in the top 40, and it has been what, one month and a half?
Titanfall, on the other hand, which is used above to compare with is still at #2.
Also based on Bethesda/Zenimax complete silence about the sales numbers, the game is most likely selling quite poorly. If it would have sold 1 million units, for sure they would have announced it.
My gaming blog
That article contains about as much fact as "It's a fact: Vanilla is the best!"
For all that article is worth, you could probably photoshop your own fabricated info-graphics and publish it on Flickr or something.
Im guessing OP didnt read the recent information that 75% of gamers buy physical copies of games where they can get digital copies instead. So that 300k figure being 75% of the actual sales makes the game in the 400k ballpark...not 1.2million.
Heres the report from gamespot about it.
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/report-majority-of-core-gamers-in-the-us-prefer-discs-over-digital/1100-6419625/
yes totaly forgot about that article !
But even if that article would not be posted it still is nowhere near that 3 million mark.
I think it barely exceeded 1 million and had already seen a dropoff right after that mark.
Words of failure spread fast around the net these days and so many people were noticed how bad this mmo realy is.
Thanks to Angry Joe and Force who have around 1.5 millions hits on ESO revieuw people knew what to expect instead of those revieuws that give a 9 !!! for this mmo.
You cant take these payed revieuws from major site's serious anymore......
I suspect the posters claiming magnificent sales of a game with obviously flawed game mechanisms and poorly thought out design concepts; clearly demonstrated to be inadequately tested; live in Colorado, USA [where it is legal to buy and smoke pot]... or they live in California where, irrespective of legality, they buy and smoke pot anyway (especially the politicians).
I sincerely hope ZOS gets its act together; the game needs a lot of work (and a new management team).
Gamestop telling investors they are still viable? No, their profits are not tanking at all.
In fact Gamestop is prime for investment. The future of PC sales at these locations is bright! Get in while you can!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1944821-why-gamestop-stock-is-crashing
Gamespot not gamestop.